Saturday, 26 April 2014

GDP REBASING DISCUSSION 3


"You have to finish what you started. Oh I remember now.I overheard you and Konti were talking one morning about GDP rebasing.How has that translated to advert material for GEJ? I heard that it was an achievement to be president when Nigeria became largest economy in Africa.If I tell you that Mozanbique was the best economy in Africa in 2013 you wouldn't believe it.They dont have oil.Their GDP growth in 2013 was 8.1%.They achieved this by outstanding growth in mining, extraction,transport and communication sector.They were part of the reason overall growth in Sub-Saharan Africa hit 4.8% in 2013.I don't think their president made an issue out of this achievement.

"I have not seen the advert.But if that is true,it will be ridiculous.Re-basing is good for statistics,national planning and for developing strategy for economic expansion."

" Oh I see, is that why that old man from Harare is angry by calling us very corrupt nation?"
" Even if there is economic progress in Zimbabwe,the statement is unbecoming of a leader like him."
Please,Pros,you called Mugabe a leader? He is a ruler.He has ruled Zimbabwe for only God knows how long."

"That said.We need to put things in order at home.We urgently need to tackle corruption."

" Oh yeah,I agree with you my friend.Going back to GDP rebasing, what is corruption to GDP rate, poverty to GDP rate and unemployment to GDP? I have been hearing about debt to GDP rate,Tax to GDP rates etc."

"You are impossible,Ando! However,we can truly do the calculation if we have appropriate data.But everything in the economy is not about GDP, Ando. We need to diversify the economy from only oil to other durable source of revenue.The revenue from oil will soon decrease not only due to continuous oil theft but by reduction in demands from export countries.Shale oil development in the US was the reason US oil demand from Nigeria has reduced by 90%. This is a warning."

"I 'm glad that you are feeling me,Pros.We should not be lost in the euphoria of a rebased GDP.If we work tirelessly at addressing our failures and clog in the wheel of the nation's progress,we would be celebrating our standard of living as denoted by Per Capital Income.Right now,my friend,95% of our wealth as a nation is in the hands of 5% of our population.The gap between the poor and the rich is far and wide apart.Poverty is endemic.Corruption is escalating.But I think there is light at the end of the tunnel."

"Ando, that is insightful.I agree."

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